Insight Gained in Mayan Fall from Splendor

The news reports of the caravan of Central Americans massed at the U.S.-Mexico border are striking.  Why would so many people with grandparents and babies in tow undertake such a dangerous trip to approach an inhospitable neighbor for asylum?  Clearly things must be quite bad at home to undertake such risks.  A simple Internet search turns up a mix of reasons that Central Americans are having a tough go of it  -  too few job opportunities, low wages, high crime rates, police corruption, drug gang wars.

These are descendants of the Mayans!  How could this society fall so far from ancient splendor to such a long list of modern woes?  It is a question worthwhile for U.S. citizens to ponder, because in the answers there might be some valuable insight for our future.

About a thousand years ago the Mayans had achieved impressive economic, political and social heights.  At the empire’s peak strength, the Mayans had built more than forty cities across Central America and reached a population in excess of two million.  The Mayan calendar was one of their most shining accomplishments, based on an impressive understanding of mathematics and astronomy. 

The Mayans were doers as well, designing and constructing large structures such as astronomical observatories and religious temples for the thinkers and palaces and sports arenas for the powerful.  They also built elevated roads between cities and elaborate subterranean aqueducts for water management and irrigation.  Their fields produced a wide selection of food and textile crops.  Do not forget those playing balls produced long before Europeans even conceived of rubber.

Unfortunately, even before the conquistadors sloshed ashore in the 16^th Century with their lead shot and small-pox germs, the Mayan had experienced severe setback.  Indeed, the Mayan economy may have been in tatters as early as the 8^th Century.  The Spanish found the Mayans living in small villages, eking out a living by hunting, fishing and growing a few garden vegetables.

Using vegetation studies, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies developed a view on what might have triggered the Mayan demise or at least hurried it along.  The Mayans were farmers and cleared vast areas of the tropical rainforest in Central America to build their agricultural complex.  Unfortunately, the loss of tree cover may have worsened drought conditions by reflecting energy back into the atmosphere rather than absorbing it.  With less energy captured on land there was less water vapor to form clouds and then rain.  Drought conditions intensified. 

Mayan farm practices may have also played a role.  They used slash and burn techniques and, in order to deliver enough food for the fast growing population, they were dependent upon securing large swathes of forest to clear.  As forested areas near their cities were used up they may have had to shorten fallow cycles in old fields.  Inadequate fallow time means depleted soils and reduced crop yields.  The Mayans may have also experienced widespread corn crop failures due to mosaic virus.  Notably, lengthy fallow times are needed to thwart the mosaic virus, which is spread by aphids.   

Drought.  Climate shifts.  Nasty crop disease.  Inept farming practices.  The fields ultimately produced less food and fiber than was needed for the prodigious population. The Mayan economy collapsed.

It would seem we are not the first to grapple with the challenges of climate change.  Mayans dealt with the climate problems of their time with a tried and proven response  -  pack the bags and move!  The Mayans of the southern lowland region left their big stone palaces and temples behind and hit the road for better farmland to the north.  The drought followed them.  Sound familiar?

There is one other common element in the Central America stories.  The ancient Mayans were plagued with fighting not unlike the gang wars in the barrios of Guatemala and Honduras today.  Ancient Mayans were known to be a civilized, peaceful society.  However, rival tribes and neighboring cities had their disagreements too.  Archaeological artifacts reveal a military class and plenty of weaponry.  Economic failures may have exacerbated political rivalries, intensifying fighting and violence.  That might sound familiar too.

The Trump administration has described the Central American migrant caravan in terms of race and crime.  This xenophobic view sidesteps what is most likely driving those poor wretches northward  -  climate change economics.  Central American has taken some climate hits in recent years  -  exceptionally strong hurricanes, severe drought, mudslides and rising sea levels.  Weather events destroy valuable infrastructure, disrupt efficient supply chain function, eliminate businesses and jobs, and compromise the integrity of family units.   

The insight that the ancient Mayans have to offer us in modern times is that even the mightiest economies can be vulnerable.  The consequences of a changing climate  -  no matter what the cause  -  are far reaching.  North America is also experiencing economic stresses due to climate change and those stresses are likely to become more dramatic as the environmental impacts intensify.  Are U.S. citizens to pack their bags and head to Canada?  That is not a viable solution for any number of reasons.

Application of capital to projects that address the root causes of climate change seem far more astute than simply building walls to hold back a few poor migrants.  No, the best option is to stand our ground and fight for change of another sort  -  a healthy environment and productive agricultural complex. 

The quest for promising investment opportunities with redeeming environmental impact has been a central theme of this blog for some time. It is not likely investors will find a silver bullet that fixes all problems, but each dollar of capital that is targeted at environmentally-friendly products or services is another dollar closer to climate security.      

 

Neither the author of the Small Cap Strategist web log, Crystal Equity Research nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the companies mentioned herein.