Friday, December 04, 2020

Accounting for Externalities...and What it Means for Stock Prices

Externality is a relatively new economic concept.  Economist Arthur Pigou came up with the framework in the 1920s to describe situations when hapless observers get caught up in the consequences of economic activities.  Pigou postulated that externalities occur when the production or consumption of a good causes an impact on third parties not directly related to the transaction. 

It is possible for externalities to be positive.  For example, walking or riding a bicycle to work creates the positive externality of reduced congestion for parties are driving their cars to work or who do not even have jobs.  Another example can be found on an apple farm.  Bees have access to the apple tree blossoms and produce more honey that can be harvested by other animals or even humans thus expanding food chain productivity.

Mostly we focus on negative externalities.  Perhaps this is because there are so many and the nature of negative externalities encourages perpetuation.  Take the case of a coal-fired power plant that emits particulates and toxic gases from its chimneys.  First, humans and animals within range of the emissions experience health issues and must pay higher doctor and veterinarian bills.  Insurance companies are also impacted by higher health insurance claims.  Second, the entire world is negatively impacted by greenhouse gas emissions lead to rising ocean levels and warming climates.  These exported costs of power production are at the heart of Pigou’s externality thesis.

The oil and gas industry provides an even better illustration of externalities.  Gas flares are commonly used at oil and gas wells to burn off large amounts of unwanted petroleum gas.  Such flares are often used throughout the life of a well, sending toxic chemicals high into the skies above.  The International Energy Association estimates that over 145 billion cubic meters of gas were flared globally in 2018, resulting in about 275 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions.  The oil and gas company pays for the gas flare equipment, but leaves the cost of the emissions in the form of fouled air and warming atmosphere to the pocket books of others.  The latter is a negative externality. 

It is important to note that gas flares are only one element of the negative externalities created by the oil and gas industry.  Nonetheless, the gas flare situation provides a very good illustration of why externalities must be a part of every investors decision making framework.

Pigou developed the idea of ‘deadweight welfare loss’ to illustrative the economic consequences of negative externalities.  This is a different concept than welfare payments to low income or disadvantage persons.  However, it certainly does have to do with the welfare of the community which is left with the bag full of nasty stuff. 

Economics get excited about graphs like the one shown here in part because it simplifies and makes orderly what is an unruly social phenomenon.  Pigou himself made note of the communications problem.  In his book The Economics of Welfare published in 1920, Pigou wrote that the industrialists of his time were not concerned about external costs borne by society.  They had no incentive to internalize the full social costs of their production processes. 

What is more there have been few who have been interested in challenging them, least of all stockholders and customers.  The ability to export significant costs associated with production builds profits and supports shareholder dividends.  Who wants to cut off the grandma's dividend check?  

Producers have also been quite successful in frightening consumers with the prospect of higher prices.  Those who actually consume petroleum products may not be among those third parties who are paying the externalized costs, so consumers have little incentive to upset the apple cart.  They can keep their gas costs low, for example, and other people can worry about the healthcare and insurance bills.    

As the years have gone by the ‘externality’ chicken has come home to roost.  The costs of environmental degradation in particular have begun to impinge on everyone.  In his book The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity, Dr. Pavan Sukhdev claims that environmental externalities alone are costing society more than $2 trillion.  The shockingly large aggregate number notwithstanding, efforts to correct the problem are more important.  Investors need a clearer picture of the true costs of production.  

The Environmental Profit and Loss (EPL) statement is a start.  The sports footwear and clothing maker Puma SE (PUMSY:  OTC) was the first public company to attempt incorporating environmental costs into operating costs.  The Puma EPL statement summarizes the costs to society caused by the environmental impact of Puma’s operations  -  an internalization of externalities.  Puma first EPL was reported in 2011.  In the nine years since, the company has been successful in increasing revenue while bringing the environmental costs per revenue dollar down by 13.6%.  Of course, those successes may simply have been the result of better shoes or fancier t-shirts.  Certainly, Puma's EPL has not taken away from its success.  

The EPL does not replace the financial profit and loss statement that investors have used for decades to make investment decisions.  Valuation exercises are likely to be driven by the same financial measures for some time to come.  However, the argument can be made that for management the EPL exercise could be an excellent driver of improved performance that will ultimately be captured in conventional financial statements.  Indeed, Puma has achieved successively higher net income in the last five years on both higher sales and improved profit margins. 

Unfortunately, progress has been slow toward adoption of environmental accounting disclosures.  Royal Philips N.V. (PHG:  NYSE) published its first EPL for the year 2018, winning endorsement from public accounting firm Ernst & Young.  Using different methodology than Puma, the Philips report expresses climate change and human toxicity in monetary terms using environmental prices.  Likewise Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO:  NYSE) has also put its biotechnology operations up for closer scrutiny with its first EPL published in 2014.

 

As a health technology companies, Royal Philips and Novo Nordisk have much less to hide than and oil and gas companies.  It may require some encouragement for large polluters to pull back the curtain on the amount of their true costs that is pushed off onto the public.  In the next post we look at incentives and mechanisms for corporate responsibility.

 

 

Neither the author of the Small Cap Strategist web log, Crystal Equity Research nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the companies mentioned herein.

 

 

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